A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
